Something About The Law

What connects India, Iran, Turkey, Brazil, China and South Africa? A very unsatisfactory answer would be that they’re emerging powers in highly volatile corners of the globe. Taking India aside, an even more nebulous answer would be that they’re countries which realize their strategic importance in respective regions.

Before India turns up in this piece, let’s take a look at these countries. Iran, which has enough problems to deal with at home in a violent post-election scenario, knows that it can afford to play the rogue till the cows come home.  So even if the West suddenly discovers an unknown nuclear facility somewhere in a mountain hole (literally), Iran is fully aware of Obama s (or his allies’) limitations. At the end of the day, Iran is a key index in the Arab-Israeli Conflict, and the war in Afghanistan -  in addition to holding considerable influence over the Shia groups in Iraq, Syria and Lebanon. Basically, a Middle East solution is unthinkable without Iran’s involvement. Oh, and lest we forget, the Strait of Hormuz. Possibly the most important choke point in the world, the Strait, directly under Iran’s nose, sees 40% of the world’s shipment. What’s more significant is that Iran has used this aspect to strategic advantage.  It has roped in China and Venezuela for economic sustenance and its oil-driven economy has even attracted the bigwigs in Europe. Having encouraged indigenous Islamist movements in the region, and even in Central Asia, Ahmedinejad has a grip on the jugular.

Turkey, on the other hand, is using its ‘zero-problems with neighbours’ policy to mediate over the US-Iran (and the Six Party Talks) wrangle. Turkey actively looks forward to a stronger role in the region, knowing that Iran’s future decision to ship uranium for storage to its shores could be a phenomenal boost. Its already engaged Syria, in trying to break Damascus’ isolation. When the war on Iraq manifested, Istanbul gladly lent its soil to the US troops, scoring high on the war against terrorism. Having made a recent attempt to reconcile with Armenia, Turkey’s even taking the Russian bull by its horns. The only non-Muslim member of the NATO and strategic partner of the African Union, Turkey’s ‘secular Islam’ is its passport to regional powerdom.

Brazil? Well, at a time when Latin America is trying hard to forget its past of dictatorial regimes, Honduras turns up. Zelaya’s case, in my opinion, was a missed chance for Brazil, but there’s no question as to who’s the heavyweight in the region. When Lula De Silva was asked to hand over the ousted President from the Brazilian Embassy in Honduras, he just put his foot down and refused. Brazil sent a clear signal of its intention to be an active participant in the South America’s future. And what better mediator, when a belligerent Chavez is threatening to bomb Colombia back to the Stone Age? 2016 belongs to Rio, and if Obama’s bid can’t stop the Olympic flame from coming to Brazil, we’re talking serious strings here. Think about climate change – and the country’s role in preventing Amazon deforestation comes to mind. Let’s face it, there’s more to Brazil than football and samba.

Schoeman may call South Africa an ‘emerging middle power’; the terminology apart, there’s no denying the country’s influence in that nick of the woods. Post-Apartheid,  the Rainbow Nation’s approach to human rights and non-proliferation has been commendable. While Mandela’s towering persona attempted to resolve crises in Haiti and far-off Kosovo (and even sealed the deal to extradite the Lockerbie perpetrators), Mbeki talked about an African Renaissance.  Clearly, S.A has been looking to be the top negotiator in strife-torn parts of the Dark Continent, ranging from Sudan to Zimbabwe.  It currently chairs African Union (AU) Committee on Post-Conflict Reconstruction of the War-Affected Areas in Sudan and has been an active participant in engaging Zimbabwe with the world.  Brokering  recent domestic solutions in Harare and Darfur, South Africa has shown the world that decisions in one of the most conflict-prone regions of the world, need to have its approval.

Its easy to get lost while talking about China and its sway as a global power, but let’s not look too far beyond its borders. Sure, Taiwan and the Uighur separatist movements are a thorn in its flesh, but its strategic hold in the region is immense. Well, why else would Obama talk about (virtually) nothing but China, even during his stops at Tokyo and Singapore. This, before he actually leaves for Beijing and Shanghai. North Korea, another one of those classic villains, need to be engaged – and without China’s help, the task is near-insurmountable. China of course, knows this, which is probably why Wen Jiabao preferred  a visit to Pyongyang before the US Prez got here. Solutions in the Korean Peninsula aside, China has also shown that it can do some arm-twisting in Burma. The generals in Burma haven’t exactly been receptive to pro-democracy movements, but well, maybe Chinese democracy can win them over! In the Indian Ocean, the Hambanota naval port project is a crucial Chinese investment in Srilanka, not just for fuel supplies but also for protection.

Why would India figure in this list though? Well, enough food-for-thought for one post. More in the next.

(To be continued.)

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