Yesterday, there were two important press conferences in India that dealt with the establishment’s view of the crisis unfolding in Dubai. One was Mr. Anand Sharma’s, where the Commerce and Industry Minister sought to allay fears of its impact on India. Around the same, there was one by Dr. Thomas Isaac, Kerala’s FinMin, who (quite surprisingly) admitted that the Dubai meltdown is going to hit Kerala pretty seriously. Well, I guess the admission may not be so surprising since the sheer influence of expatriate Gulf Malayalis on Kerala’s economic engine is near-sacrosanct.
For long, Gulf countries have been the native Keralite’s favoured professional destination – to the extent that it has been made legendary in popular culture. On the ground, remittances from the Gulf has touched INR 2.2 million, with a CDS study stating it was probably the only dynamic factor in the State’s otherwise poor show from ‘75 to 2000. By acknowledging the gravity of the crunch in Dubai at the moment, Kerala’s Finance Minister has definitely set the cat amongs the pigeons.
Kerala has many reasons to be worried about the tidings in Dubai. Its not just a question of reduction in remittances – more importantly, it is the issue of forced repatriation back to the State that scares everyone. I call it forced, not by virtue of any hostile policy on part of the Dubai authorities (though such a situation is only a matter of time, if the trajectory remains the same), but because of acute unemployment concerns in the Emirates. A significant percentage of Gulf Malayalis are employed in blue-collar or semi-skilled professions, which will be hit the most as a result of the real estate crisis in Dubai. Infrastructure, real estate and luxury tourism has been Dubai’s USP, since the Emirate does not have oil resources like Abu Dhabi. A slowdown in construction will affect migrant labour and employment contracts, and a good chunk of the bane will be directed at the Malayali. This, in addition to the problems of illegal migration from Kerala (which the Government has been able to curb in recent years).
Even with the sizeable number of highly skilled professionals from the State working in Dubai, the picture is definitely not pretty. When we euphemistically refer to the term ‘highly skilled’, it is often in comparison to lower rungs. Malayalis in the service sector comprising professionals as educators, scientists, lawyers, HR personnel (with the exception of doctors/nurses) are a rarity in the Arabian peninsula. Instead, the top jobs have also focused on businesses relating to real estate, construction and banking.
Whether the State will witness an unprecedented return of its residents from the Gulf is yet to be known. But the picture’s not rosy, and tough times lie ahead.
(Featured picture: A poster from Mohanlal’s hugely successful ‘Varavelpu’ [Welcome], based on the tribulations of a Malayali expatriate in Kerala after he returns from the Gulf.)
