In my previous post, I had written about the spillover effects of the Arab Spring – how the Israel-Palestine conflict is being moulded by popular uprisings in the region; and how Turkey is looking to position itself as a key post-revolutionary player.
First, the Arab-Israeli conflict. Here is a synthesized takeaway from a roundtable discussion with students from the region, and from a talk by Camille Mansour, who was an advisor to the Palestinian delegation during the ’92-93 peace talks in DC. In blogging this, I feel my opinions have coloured some of the statements made – so unless they are explicitly referenced or within quotes, these comments should not be attributed to the speakers themselves.
What prompted Palestine to approach the UN seeking statehood, and why have negotiations in recent times failed to make headway?
Amit Paz, an Israeli-American who is currently with the Tufts Department of Political Science, was of the opinion that Israel’s “inflexible policymaking” had contributed significantly to the present deadlock. Coupled with the “slow death of the Israeli Left” and activist politics, this one-size-fits-all approach has resulted in the government working with the “unequivocal belief that Israel is right”. Prime Minister Netanyahu’s “better a bad press than a good eulogy” quip, according to Amit, embodies the self-righteous attitude of the Israeli establishment. On the other hand, there are very legitimate security concerns that influences Israel’s behaviour towards negotiations. Israel is concerned about Iran’s erratic actions, the change in populist sentiment in Egypt (and the possibility of the peace treaty being torn up), and the continuing supply of arms to Hezbollah and Hamas. These concerns, as Amit elaborated, has prompted Israel to maintain that “peace must be anchored in security”.
However, Israeli cynicism directed towards the UN and neighbours like Turkey could prove counterproductive. Israel’s isolation in the region, it seems to me, has been self-invited to a considerable extent. The Gaza flotilla episode and Operation Cast Lead does not bear lightly on a country looking to achieve a breakthrough through diplomacy.
Tamara Masri, who grew up in Palestine before coming to Tufts, offered the perspective of the youth in West Bank and Gaza, who have come to be “disillusioned with the Palestinian political class”. The narrative of loss, which has morphed from that of land to one of identity has reflected the growing frustration among Palestinian youth. And although this new generation does not want to resort to violence, there is a realisation that “freedom with dignity” may be an imminent possibility. This realisation has been brought about by the events of the Arab Spring where protests have been driven largely by the younger generations. Abbas’ speech at the UN, as Tamara pointed out, highlights this clamour for recognition. But the contradiction between “abstraction” and “security concerns” could not be sharper, and this yawning gap needs to be bridged to work towards successful negotiations.
Other students from Jordan and Lebanon underlined the impact that the Arab Spring has had on their countries. In Jordan, where the Palestinian issue grabs headlines due tothe country’s proportion of refugees, protests have been mostly muted. Nonetheless, Jordanians are irked by Israel’s “head in the sand” attitude, pretending nothing’s wrong while the conflict spills over borders. Lebanon seems to have ushered in some improvements in its governance, probably egged on the wave of protests in its neighbourhood.
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Of course, not everyone agrees with this paradigm of negotiation that have marked attempts to resolve the conflict. Prof. Mansour, for instance, believes the Palestinians have been “trapped in the negotiation cage”. “The situation”, he said “is akin to the Catholic Church’s dictum drilled into its followers – there can be no salvation outside the Church”. The Palestinian establishment, to him, seems to be convincing themselves that negotiation is the only way out.
What then, are the key features of Prof. Mansour’s ‘new’ paradigm?
- The present paradigm takes into account the needs of a State from a security perspective. This sort of skewed negotiation where the interests of both parties differ significantly has yielded little benefits. A bottom up approach – “we leave you with housing, health and education while we control security” – is simply counterproductive.
- A gradual devolution of powers – a top-down method – could be more useful, expanding the Palestinians’ areas of governance to eventually include security.
- Each time the sides sat down for talks, Israeli would offer transitional steps – the final conclusive settlement would be avoided. A new paradigm should to resolve the conflict vis-a-vis land and refugees for good.
- The provision on arbitration between both sides is optional at the moment – usually any party can go to arbitrate disputes – in this case two sides have to agree making the arbitration clause ineffective. Palestine should make the most of international law and formal institutions (think ICJ judgement on West Bank wall) to absorb legitimacy.
- Look beyond the US to other international actors – the problem with the present approach is not that Israel is a US ally – it is perfectly possible that one nation could be an ally of a negotiating party and not an ally of the other AND yet be fair. The United States has not been an honest broker to the dispute.
- Palestine should refuse further concessions and stick to its demand for freezing settlement constructions.
- The benchmark of returning to 1967 borders must be made non-negotiable.
These are all very intriguing suggestions, but it seems to me that Prof. Mansour’s central arguments feature well within the paradigm of negotiations. Neither the present approach nor Mansour’s suggestions will facilitate a speedy resolution of the dispute. In fact, what Mansour advocates is a hardening of the Palestinian stance. That approach may offer dividends if the role of the MidEast Quartet is diminished and other international actors enter the picture. In the interim however, a break from the new paradigm, as some students said during the roundtable discussion, may only come from a new intifada. Nonetheless, another uprising would render the region extremely unstable, and its merits are far from being unilaterally advantageous for Palestine.
Tags: Abbas, Israel, Palestine, UN