Here’s a very interesting take on the India connection from Obama’s speech yesterday, by Robert Kaplan, known for his controversial views on foreign affairs. The statement has been sourced from the Centre for a New American Security (more specifically, from comments by National Security Experts on Obama’s speech). The full statement may be viewed here.
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In calling for 30,000 more troops, President Barack Obama is solidifying the budding strategic partnership with India and putting Pakistan between a rock and a hard stone. India requires a relatively stable and westernized polity in Afghanistan that will not serve as an Islamic rear base for its rival Pakistan, which is why India has been heavily invested in the government of Hamid Karzai, who previously studied in India. India has opened consulates throughout Afghanistan and was uncomfortable with the barrage of anti-Karzai criticism coming out of Washington. Obama’s decision to add troops will, therefore, bring a sigh of relief to New Delhi. Pakistan’s strategic calculus is dif ferent. The Pakistani military has been willing to show some resolve in battling the Taliban inside Pakistan, but it still sees Karzai as a pro-Indian enemy whom it would like to see undermined, rather than built up as Obama is now intent on doing, even if aid money bypasses him and goes directly to local governments. But since Pakistan gets military aid, including spare parts, from the United States, it cannot openly sabotage Obama’s efforts. Thus will arise the principal tension in Obama’s new policy – and one of the tensions that will help define his presidency – keeping Pakistan on board. The degree to which he can woo Islamabad will directly correlate with the success he hopes to achieve. Both Iran and Russia are conflicted over Afghanistan: they oppose the Sunni Muslim Taliban – Iran is Shia and Russia fears a radicalized Central Asia. But the fact that Obama is now forthright behind a troop surge may cause Tehran and Moscow to make choices, which hopefully will be in A merica’s interests.”
Response from civil society? Arif Rafiq, of Pakistan Policy, tweets:
“Robert Kaplan oft constructs lovely sentences that shed little light on reality“
My take: I think the strategy is definitely inclined towards India’s interests, especially in light of the development-oriented partnership that we’ve engaged with Afghanistan. However, to say that this was a calculated measure can hardly be true (more like an inevitable consequence). Further, it doesn’t exactly hurt Pakistan’s ’strategic calculus’ – the possibility of troop withdrawal from Afghanistan right now could present a nightmarish scenario for Islamabad, with its already turbulent setting. However, Kaplan’s trying to play this down as a zero-sum game – and I don’t think he’s very close to the mark here.
In calling for 30,000 more troops, President Barack Obama is solidifying the budding strategic partnership with India and putting Pakistan between a rock and a hard stone. India requires a relatively stable and westernized polity in Afghanistan that will not serve as an Islamic rear base for its rival Pakistan, which is why India has been heavily invested in the government of Hamid Karzai, who previously studied in India. India has opened consulates throughout Afghanistan and was uncomfortable with the barrage of anti-Karzai criticism coming out of Washington. Obama’s decision to add troops will, therefore, bring a sigh of relief to New Delhi. Pakistan’s strategic calculus is dif ferent. The Pakistani military has been willing to show some resolve in battling the Taliban inside Pakistan, but it still sees Karzai as a pro-Indian enemy whom it would like to see undermined, rather than built up as Obama is now intent on doing, even if aid money bypasses him and goes directly to local governments. But since Pakistan gets military aid, including spare parts, from the United States, it cannot openly sabotage Obama’s efforts. Thus will arise the principal tension in Obama’s new policy – and one of the tensions that will help define his presidency – keeping Pakistan on board. The degree to which he can woo Islamabad will directly correlate with the success he hopes to achieve. Both Iran and Russia are conflicted over Afghanistan: they oppose the Sunni Muslim Taliban – Iran is Shia and Russia fears a radicalized Central Asia. But the fact that Obama is now forthright behind a troop surge may cause Tehran and Moscow to make choices, which hopefully will be in A merica’s interests.”



